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Germany Leading Economic Indicators and Related Composite Indexes for May 2007

NEW YORK, July 23 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Germany increased 0.3 percent and the coincident index remained unchanged in May.

-- The leading index increased again in May following a large gain in
April. Consumer confidence index, stock prices, and new orders in
investment goods industries continued to be the major contributors to
the leading index. The six-month growth rate of the leading index
picked up sharply to a 2.8 percent (a 5.6 percent annual rate) in May,
up from 0.0 to 0.5 percent growth through January. In addition, the
strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread in
recent months.

-- The coincident index was unchanged in May following a small decline in
April. However, the strengths in the coincident index remained
widespread this month, and three out of four components in the
coincident index (industrial production, manufacturing sales, and
employed persons) offset a large decline in retail trade. At the same
time, real GDP grew at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter
of 2007, below the 3.7 percent average annual rate in the second half
of 2006. The continued widespread improvement in the leading index so
far suggests that economic growth is likely to continue, and perhaps
pick up, in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS

Six of the seven components in the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors to the leading index -- in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- are consumer confidence, stock prices, new orders in investment goods industries, inventory change series*, and gross enterprises and properties income*. New residential construction orders declined in May.

With the 0.3 percent increase in May, the leading index now stands at 100 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in April and remained unchanged in March. During the six-month span through May, the leading index increased 2.8 percent, with six of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in May. The positive contributors to the coincident index were industrial production, manufacturing sales, and employed persons. Retail trade declined in May.

Unchanged in May, the coincident index now stands at 108.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in April and increased 0.3 percent in March. During the six-month period through May, the coincident index increased 0.7 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

Founded in 1916, The Conference Board is the premier business membership and research network. The Conference Board has become a global leader in helping executives build strong professional relationships, expand their business knowledge and find solutions to a wide range of business challenges. The Board's Economics Program, under the direction of Chief Economist Gail Fosler, is a recognized source of forecasts, economic analysis and objective indicators such as the Leading Economic Indicators and the Consumer Confidence Index.

This role is part of a long tradition of research and education that stretches back to the compilation of the first continuous measure of the cost of living in the United States in 1919. In 1995, The Conference Board assumed responsibility for computing the composite indexes from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The Conference Board now produces business cycle indexes for the U.S., Australia, France, Germany, Korea, Japan, Mexico, Spain and the U.K. To subscribe to any of these indexes, please visit www.globalindicators.org, contact the customer service department at 212-339-0345, or email indicators@conference-board.org

Summary Table of Composite Indexes
2007 6-month
Mar Apr May Nov to May

Leading index 98.9 p 99.7 p 100.0 p
Percent Change 0.0 p 0.8 p 0.3 p 2.8 p
Diffusion 57.1 85.7 78.6 85.7

Coincident Index 108.9 r 108.8 r 108.8
Percent Change 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.7
Diffusion 100.0 50.0 62.5 75.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 1990
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

For more information visit our Website: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, August 23, 2007 at 9:30 A.M. (ET). In Germany - Thursday, August 23, 2007 at 3:30 P.M. (CET)

First Call Analyst:
FCMN Contact:

Source: The Conference Board

CONTACT: Indicator Program, 1-212-339-0330, or Media, Frank Tortorici,
+1-212-339-0231, or Carol Courter, +1-212-339-0232, both of The Conference
Board

Web site:

http://www.conference-board.org/
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci
http://www.globalindicators.org/

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